After the Steelers were walloped by the Chiefs in the early game, the Ravens blew out the Houston Texans, 31-2, to take control of the AFC North heading into Week 18.
Baltimore (11-5) now has a one-game lead over Pittsburgh (10-6) in the division race and can clinch the division with a home win over the Browns (3-12) in the regular-season finale or Steelers loss to the Bengals (7-8).
The Ravens, who trailed the AFC North by two games a week and a half ago, now have an 88% chance to win the division, according to ESPN, and NextGenStats (NGS) gives them a 92% shot.
The Ravens lost to the Browns earlier this season, 29-24, and the Steelers beat the Bengals, 44-38. So Baltimore has to take care of business to seal its second straight division crown.
The Ravens’ Christmas Day win over the Texans (9-7) guarantees they’re at-worst the No. 3 seed in the AFC if they win the division. Baltimore can still earn the No. 2 seed (5% chance, per NGS) if the Buffalo Bills lose out (vs. Jets, at Patriots) and the Ravens win in Week 18.
If the Ravens get the No. 3 seed, their most likely Wild Card opponent would be the Los Angeles Chargers and another HarBowl. The Chargers (9-6) are in the playoffs if they win in New England this weekend.
The Chargers currently sit in the No. 6 seed with the Denver Broncos (9-6) in the No. 7 spot because the Bolts have a head-to-head tiebreaker over them. The Chargers’ final two games are at New England (3-12) and at Las Vegas (3-12). The Chargers can rise to the No. 5 seed if they win their final two games and Pittsburgh loses in Week 18 to Cincinnati.
Next Gen Stats gives the Chargers a 58% shot of getting the No. 6 seed. However, the Steelers (23%) and Broncos (16%) both have decent odds of landing in that spot as well.
If the Ravens don’t win the division, they’re locked into the No. 5 seed, which would mean a return trip to Houston in the Wild Card round.
