The Toronto Blue Jays need to fill a lot of holes this offseason if they want to contend in the AL East. While the Jays cast a wide net every winter – kicking the tires on Juan Soto, Max Fried, and Anthony Santander to name a few – we have seen some deals that have worked in the club’s favour over time and some contracts that have not benefited the squad at the end of the day.
These could be one-year deals or multi-year contracts, and some even started on a rough note before turning into a positive for Toronto.
It’s the name of the game and Jays fans have seen these types of deals go one way or the other over the years, which only heightens the shortcomings that have hit this team since Ross Atkins took over the club when it comes to postseason success.
Considering the Blue Jays intend to build a contending team for the 2025 season, they have to inevitably stay away from some free agents this offseason – especially if they miss out on Juan Soto and have to pivot elsewhere to improve the roster. Below are three free agents that Toronto should steer clear of, no matter how tempting things can get.
Paul Goldschmidt (1B)
There is no denying that Paul Goldschmidt has been a solid player for the St. Louis Cardinals for years. He even won an MVP award in 2022, proving to many within the baseball community that his age and performance decline weren’t a cause for concern.
Unfortunately for Goldschmidt, he was not able to keep up the MVP pace and since then, his stats have plummeted. As The Athletic reported, the first baseman was a below-average hitter and recorded a 98 OPS+ over 154 games to go with a 1.1 fWAR – the lowest of his career excluding his shortened rookie campaign in 2011. The harsh reality is that the 37-year-old seems to be declining since that impressive 2022 season and hits the open market at a crossroads.
The team signed first baseman and designated hitter Brandon Belt to a one-year $9.3 million contract for the 2023 season. Belt did manage to turn in some solid numbers, as he slashed .254/.369/.490 with 19 home runs and a team-leading .858 OPS. Toronto also signed designated hitter and former third baseman Justin Turner to a one-year, $13 million deal last winter when the club missed out on Ohtani. Turner didn’t quite live up to his potential but did perform fairly well after his trade to the Seattle Mariners. Overall, the Blue Jays did well by flipping Turner at the trade deadline but from a contending perspective, this wasn’t the most successful signing since Turner slashed .230/.334/.343 in the first half of the campaign.
The Jays could easily view someone like Goldschmidt as a veteran bat to help add some power but this shouldn’t be a path they consider any given their recent track record with Turner last season. While Goldschmidt and Turner are not the same type of player, the former Diamondbacks’ power numbers have been in decline over the past two seasons and his strikeout rate climbed to 26.5% last year – a career-high outside of his limited rookie season. To hope for a turnaround when the Jays are looking to contend is a risk that might not be worth the gamble.
His veteran experience would be a positive for the Jays but for a club looking to contend in 2025, there are other power bats out there that fill a deeper positional need for the money the first baseman is predicted to earn.
Max Scherzer (RHP)
Right-hander Max Scherzer has weathered the highs and lows that come with being a starter at the big-league level. Injuries have limited him over the past few seasons but from 2013 to 2019, he was one of the most dominant pitchers in all of baseball – evidenced by his three Cy Young Awards. He also comes with significant playoff experience and has two World Series rings on his mantle Washington Nationals (2019) and the Texas Rangers (2023).
But as he enters his 18th season in the big leagues at 40 years old, the right-hander is coming off a season where he missed most of the campaign on the IL. While he has dealt with the odd injury bout throughout his career, he was limited to just 43 1/3 innings last year and saw a slight uptick in his ERA to 3.95. As such, the Missouri native recorded a .4 bWAR and posted a 101 ERA+, the first sign that the right-hander is indeed human.
If the Jays are serious about contending this season, taking a flyer on Scherzer for a one-year deal carries some risk in that he can’t stay healthy and the Jays have to find a starter within their depth charts to carry the load. He is still a serviceable arm and has an excellent track record but considering Gausman and Bassitt are eligible for free agency within the next two years (and Berrios could opt out of his deal following the 2026 season), it makes more sense to spend the dollars on a player like Fried or Burnes who will command more in salary than Scherzer but will present some additional stability in the rotation past next season in a longer-term deal.
Alex Verdugo (OF)
Fans know Alex Verdugo all too well considering he has spent the past five seasons within the AL East. A serviceable bat that hovers around the 100 OPS+ line, Verdugo’s production dropped significantly during his lone campaign with the Yankees, posting a .233/.291/.356 slash line while recording a woeful 83 OPS+, his lowest mark since becoming a full-time big leaguer.
