It was pretty much a matter of when, not if, the Baltimore Ravens would clinch a playoff berth for the third-straight year. Their first chance to do so came on Saturday, and they took full advantage of that opportunity with a 34-17 statement victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers, who they’ve struggled mightily against in recent years.
So, the Ravens are back in the postseason for certain now, but even with just two games left to play, there’s still much to determine.
To see where the Ravens might end up, we’ll take a look at the New York Times’ playoff simulator for reference. Keep in mind that these odds were updated before Saturday’s games, so the exact percentages may have changed slightly, but it still gives a good idea of what to expect.
First and foremost, Baltimore has a great chance to win their second-straight AFC North title if it takes care of business.
With wins in their final two games, the Ravens have a six percent chance to finish as the No. 2 seed, a 71 percent chance to finish as the No. 3 seed and a 23 percent chance to finish as the No. 5 seed. The Ravens still need a bit of help to win the division, but with the Steelers having a much tougher remaining schedule, there’s a good chance they get that help.
Secondly, the scenarios if the Ravens go 1-1 to close the season actually vary quite a bit depending on which game they win.
If they defeat the Houston Texans in Week 17 and lose to the Cleveland Browns in Week 18, then they have a 27 percent chance to finish as the No. 3 seed and a 73 percent chance to finish as the No. 5 seed. If the opposite happens, then they have a nine percent chance to finish as the No. 3 seed, a 40 percent chance to finish as the No. 4 seed and a 51 percent chance finish as the No. 5 seed. They’d also have a miniscule chance to finish as the No. 2 seed in both scenarios.
Finally, losing both of their remaining games would ensure that the Ravens finish as a wild card team, and thus start the postseason on the road. They would have a 46 percent chance to finish as the No. 5 seed, a 49 percent chance to finish as the No. 6 seed and a five percent chance to finish as the No. 7 seed. Clearly not the best-case scenario.
