The Philadelphia Phillies look for a second straight division title in 2025. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with a Philadelphia Phillies over/under win total prediction and pick.

Last year, it was a 95-67 season and their first NL East crown since 2011. They will look to defend that crown this year and also look for their third straight 90-win season. The Phillies have cleared their pre-season win total in each of the last four seasons, but this will be the highest pre-season win total in the last four years. This year, the total is set at 90.5 games. Still, last year was the first time since 2011 they won over 90.5 games in a season.

A major factor in the Phillies going over the win total this year is their newest edition. The Phillies added Jesus Luzardo to the starting rotation this year. He did struggle with injuries last year in Miami, starting just 12 games and going 3-6. Still, in his last full season, he was 10-10 with a 4.0 WAR. This will also be the first time he has had this level of support, playing for the Marlins and Athletics prior to this year.

He will join an already solid rotation. That is led by Aaron Nola. He has won ten or more games in each of his last three seasons. Further, he has averaged a 3.86 WAR over the last three years. Christopher Sanchez was an all-star last year, winning 11 games with a 3.4 WAR. Meanwhile, Ranger Suarez won 12 games and was also an all-star last year. He has also been at 2.3 or above in WAR each of the last four years. Finally, Zack Wheeler was 16-7 last year and finished second in the Cy Young voting. It was the third time in four years he was in the top six of Cy Young votings.

There is also a hope that Bryson Stott will return to form. He was dealing with injuries last year and hit just .245 with 11 home runs and 57 RBIS. He had a 2.5 WAR, but it was a drop from his 2023 season. That year, he had an OPS+ of 103 while having a 4.3 WAR. Max Kepler also joins the outfield for the Phillies. In his career, he is averaging a 3.1 WAR with 24 home runs and 77 RBIs per 162 games. Finally, Bryce Harper could also be better this year, returning from injury. He had a 4.8 WAR last year and was an all-star. It was his best season since his MVP season of 2021.

Depth at some key positions could be an issue for the Phillies. The first position is catcher. J.T. Realmuto is in the final season of his contract, and, as a catcher, he will not start every game. J.T. Realmuto has regressed over the last two seasons, dropping from a 6.6 WAR to 3.6 in 2023 and 3.0 last year. He had a similar OPS+ and Rbat+ as he did in 2023, but that was still a drop from his 2022 season. He also played just 99 games last year. Rafael Marchan is in a battle to be the primary backup catcher, and he has played in just 40 games in his career, with a 1.2 WAR. Garrett Stubbs is the other option, who has a career 1.3 WAR in his six seasons.

The second depth issue is in the outfield. Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, and Max Kepler are the projected starters, but Kepler was in and out of the lineup last year and had struggles with left-handed pitchers. This would either put Kyle Schwarber in the outfield, but his fielding will be a concern. The other option is Johan Rojas. Rojas played in 120 games last year but hit just .243 with a 69 OPS+ and a 0.7 WAR.

Finally, there is the issue of age. Of the top seven hitters in the lineup, six of them are over the age of 31, with J.T. Realmuto being the oldest at nearly 34. The Pitching staff does have a little more youth, with Jesus Luzardo being in his age 27 seasons, but Zack Wheeler is 34, and Aaron Nola, who has dealt with injuries, is 31.

Final Phillies Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick

The Phillies have not won 91 games in back-to-back seasons since 2010-2011. That was a part of four straight years of over 90.5 wins. They are in a tough division, with the Braves looking to bounce back from an injury-filled season. Further, the Mets made multiple offseason moves to improve their roster, and the Nationals are expected to improve this year. Still, the Phillies bring back large portions of their roster from a team that won 95 games last year, including a great pitching staff. Take the over for the Phillies.