The San Diego Padres have had a very quiet offseason so far. However, that could change soon. General manager A.J. Preller still faces significant roster needs and decisions to shape the team’s 2025 aspirations. One of the biggest questions hanging over the Padres is the future of their ace, Dylan Cease. As the free agent pitching market dwindles, Cease’s trade options have become increasingly limited. Will the Padres ultimately trade him?
Dylan Cease could be one of the most valuable trade chips at Preller’s disposal this offseason. While Cease wouldn’t command a return as monumental as the Juan Soto trade, his value remains high, especially given the current pitching landscape. The Padres have a few factors working in their favor. The top-tier pitchers in free agency—such as Blake Snell, Max Fried, Yusei Kikuchi, and Corbin Burnes—have already found new teams.
Meanwhile, the Boston Red Sox acquired Garrett Crochet, one of the most enticing trade options. This leaves teams desperate for frontline starters with fewer options to explore. While pitchers like Jack Flaherty and Max Scherzer remain available, they lack the upside and long-term potential that Cease offers. Cease represents a rare opportunity to add a top-tier arm for teams that missed out on marquee free agents. The Padres, in turn, could capitalize on this scarcity to secure a strong return.
A potential Dylan Cease trade likely hinges on another pivotal factor: the decision of Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki. The 23-year-old ace is expected to make his choice in mid-January, and his decision will create ripple effects across the pitching market. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Padres would be more inclined to trade Cease if they land Sasaki. Adding Sasaki to the rotation could allow San Diego to part with Cease while maintaining a competitive staff. However, there’s another scenario to consider. Signing Sasaki might make Preller hesitant to trade Cease, instead opting to build a dominant rotation for 2025. In either case, the Padres’ plans for Cease are likely to remain on hold until Sasaki’s decision is finalized.
After losing Max Fried to the New York Yankees in free agency, the Atlanta Braves are likely searching for another elite starter to bolster their rotation. Adding Cease to a staff that already includes Spencer Strider, Chris Sale, and Spencer Schwellenbach would make Atlanta a serious contender in a tough NL East. The Braves also boast an impressive group of pitching prospects, including Cam Caminiti, who could be of interest to the Padres.
The Baltimore Orioles are another intriguing suitor for Cease. After Corbin Burnes shockingly signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore needs a replacement to solidify its rotation. Known for their strong farm system, the Orioles could offer a package of prospects that would appeal to the Padres. Whether Preller opts to develop these prospects or flip them in subsequent deals, a trade with Baltimore could address multiple roster needs for San Diego.
The Toronto Blue Jays were reportedly aggressive in their pursuit of Burnes, and they may still be looking to upgrade their rotation after a disappointing 2024 season. Cease would give Toronto the frontline starter they need to contend in the competitive AL East. However, the Blue Jays’ farm system ranks among the weakest in MLB, which could limit their ability to put together an appealing trade package. While a deal with Toronto is less likely, their desperation to contend makes them a team to watch.
Cease is projected to command a contract of at least $108 million when he hits free agency next year, according to Spotrac. However, with this offseason’s pitching market driving up prices, that figure could rise significantly. Given these factors, it seems unlikely the Padres will extend both Cease and breakout starter Michael King. One of the two will likely be traded. Preller’s patience and ability to strike a deal at the right time will play a pivotal role. Whether Cease stays in San Diego or becomes the centerpiece of a blockbuster trade, his situation will be one to monitor closely as the offseason unfolds.
