Three AFC playoff games. Three blowouts. It’s a good job the league dropped the “Super” part from their Wildcard Weekend sales pitch.
But within those blowouts was something magical, the appetizer to what should be the tastiest main course of the season: Lamar Jackson and the Ravens against Josh Allen’s Bills in a win-or-go-home, be-crowned-or-memed, MVP-off in the divisional round this coming weekend.
Taken together, Jackson and Allen completed 36 of 47 passes, for 447 yards and four touchdowns with zero interceptions in the wildcard round. And this against two of the most fearsome defensive fronts in the NFL. No one has hunted quarterbacks this season like the Broncos, and no one brings four All-Pro caliber pass-rushers to the party like the Steelers.
It didn’t matter. By the advanced metrics, we saw two of the most efficient, impressive quarterback performances of the season. Jackson completed 12.8% more of his passes than expected against the Steelers on Saturday, according to Next Gen Stats. Not to be outdone, Allen completed 16.5% of his passes over expectation against the Broncos on Sunday.
In one sense, part of the joy in comparing Allen and Jackson is how similar they are. The way their legs change the math of the game, how they challenge defenses and orchestrate complicated offenses. They have mastered the details that excite the nerds, but at any point, they are a threat to drop a supernova highlight that overwhelms the TikTok servers.
And yet there is a clear aesthetic difference. Jackson is lithe, skilled, a speedster who can apparate in and out of creases along the line of scrimmage before anyone else even sees what is unfolding. Allen is a wrecking ball, a 240lbs labrador bounding around the field who hits defenders like a cement truck when they encroach on his personal space.
At the age of 28, both, somehow, are peaking. Rarely do you see a two-time MVP and a future Hall of Famer tap into new fabrics of their game seven years into their respective careers. Yet Allen and Jackson have ratcheted things up another level this season. They’ve been in (almost) every situation. They’ve seen every defense. They know the solution to every problem. And finally, they each have the supporting cast to compete for a championship.
You can pick holes in their postseason records. In past playoffs, both players have been undone by volatility. They have been such out-of-time artists, carrying such a creative burden, that they have gone haywire against the best. Jackson has been derailed by trying to do too much in a flailing offensive system. Allen has had few postseason stinkers, but when he has, it’s been because he’s indulged his penchant for hero ball.
That’s vanished this year. Just as Jackson and the Ravens have leaned into an offense built around Derrick Henry and their power-run game, Allen and the Bills have also leaned into a run-based approach.
The Ravens and Bills deserve credit for switching gears. They recognized that the era of off-script quarterbacks who could scramble around and pilot a team to successive playoff wins on their own was over. Defenses had caught up. The response has been for the best offenses to double down on the run game as the foundation of an explosive passing game. The Lions, Eagles, Bills and Ravens have all committed to a bruising style that forces defenses to respect the run game, making life easier for quarterbacks to throw. Around 20% of the Bills offense comes with an extra lineman on the field, extra mass to crush defensive fronts, the highest figure for any team since 1994. They have bludgeoned fools all season, and they controlled the line of scrimmage against the Broncos on Sunday. Baltimore’s answer to the test was simpler: they signed Henry, the toughest, most effective runner of his era. The reality of the Jackson-Henry pairing has been more impactful, imposing, and important than it even sounded in theory. When you pair that grinding style, run-first style with Jared Goff or Jalen Hurts, you put together a winning machine. Drop Jackson or Allen into a similar ecosystem, and it’s downright scary.
The fear of what Jackson and Allen can do when they drop back to pass, or take off as runners, opens up space for everyone else. In the before times (18 months ago), that meant putting more on their plates: more options in the passing game, and more work as a runner. But both franchises have figured out that limiting the down-to-down requirements on their quarterback can elevate their games. Rather than relying on the individual heroics, they call on it when it’s needed most. Allen and Jackson are turning the ball over at the lowest rates of their careers.
The old Jackson and Allen are still in there. If either team is going to win it all, they will probably need a legendary performance from their all-world quarterback at some point. And there have been plenty of times this season when Allen and Jackson have risen above the constraints of their offense and the personnel around them to put their teams on their backs. But navigating through the playoffs is a slog. It requires a team to shapeshift between styles. In the past, Jackson and Allen have led teams with a one-dimensional style. If they were not at their best, their teams would come unstuck. In more complete teams, they’re putting together the best seasons of their careers.
Building a team deep enough to play multiple styles well involves a limbo dance under the salary cap. The embrace of a new way of doing things goes beyond the two transcendent players, but it is because of Allen and Jackson that the two styles are working. Both men can methodically lead charges down the field or break the game open with one pass or one run. Jackson is in his Peyton Manning era, commanding things at the line of scrimmage. Allen is channeling parts of his inner early Tom Brady, turning the ball over to his ground attack until he’s needed in critical spots.
It has been Patrick Mahomes’ league since he stepped on to the field as a starter – no matter how well Brady tried to fend him off. This season may be defined by Dan Campbell’s Fightin’ Lions, the Eagles’ overwhelming roster or Mahomes dragging the Chiefs to a three-peat. But savor this week, because the best two quarterbacks of this season will face off with the two most well-rounded offenses. One mistake could be enough to make the difference – an errant throw, a misread, a turnover. The wildcard round may have been a dud, but it has teed up something special.
