Ahead of the new campaign, we chance our luck at predicting the ATP year-end top 10 for the coming season
The 2025 season is officially underway and, if 2024 is anything to go by, we could be in line for an interesting year of ATP action.
The past year was a significant one rankings-wise, with Novak Djokovic falling outside the top five and Jannik Sinner rising to world No 1, while Alexander Zverev held off Carlos Alcaraz inside the top three.
Ahead of the new campaign, we chance our luck at predicting the ATP year-end top 10 for the coming season.
Draper was one of the breakout stars of 2024, reaching his first Grand Slam semi-final at the US Open – alongside winning his first two ATP Tour titles.
Most excitingly for the 23-year-old, there is still plenty of room for him to grow and plenty of points to potentially earn across the first half of 2025.
Sitting at a career-high of 15th at the start of the season, Draper looks more than ready to achieve a significant rankings milestone this coming year.
9) Alex de Minaur
Australian star de Minaur starts the 2025 season as the world No 9 – and he looks set to maintain that ranking across what should be an interesting season for him.
With two ATP titles and three Grand Slam quarter-finals to defend across the year, the 25-year-old does face a little bit of rankings pressure.
But, with plenty of room to earn points across the second half of 2025 after post-Wimbledon injury struggles, de Minaur should continue his 2024 momentum and maintain his top 10 spot.
8) Stefanos Tsitsipas
2024 was a disappointing season for former world No 3 Tsitsipas, who ended the year outside of the top 10 – his first such season since 2018.
However, the Greek’s run to the Monte Carlo title showed what he is still capable of producing and, having been a top-10 mainstay for so long, it is difficult to see him not bouncing back.
A Grand Slam title will likely continue to elude him but expect the 26-year-old to do enough to improve on his current ranking of 11th.
7) Holger Rune
Much like Tsitsipas, Rune was another who had a tricky time in 2024, with it now being almost 19 months since the Dane last won an ATP title
Djokovic is one of the big wildcards heading into 2025, as it remains to be seen whether his 2024 dip in form was a one-off or a sign of a slight decline.
The 37-year-old still achieved some strong results over the past 12 months at ATP level, though, reaching the final at Wimbledon and achieving a semi-final showing at the Australian Open.
He will likely not play enough to rise too high up the rankings, but Djokovic – currently No 7 – looks a good bet to remain well ahead of a large chunk of his rivals.
4) Daniil Medvedev
Few had a season as bumpy as Medvedev, who finished the year as the world No 5 but – for the first time since 2017 – failed to win a title.
Despite that, the Russian was a runner-up at the Australian Open and Indian Wells, and was also a semi-finalist at Wimbledon and a US Open quarter-finalist.
A second Slam could well elude him but, with his ranking still intact, a likely return to form will probably see him move slightly up the ATP pecking order.
3) Alexander Zverev
Searching for the maiden Grand Slam that has so far eluded him, what mark can Zverev make on tour in 2024?
The German won two Masters 1000 titles this year and was runner-up at the French Open, with further results such as a semi-final showing in Melbourne guiding him to the year-end No 2 ranking.
An uber-consistent force for several years now, it is difficult to see the 27-year-old falling out of the top five – and it would be a shock to no one if he stayed close to his current position.
2) Jannik Sinner
With 11,830 ranking points to his name, Australian and US Open champion Sinner has a huge cushion as the world No 1; he is 3,915 points ahead of Zverev at the start of the year.
But, while there’s room for the Italian to make up ground on the natural surfaces, it is hard to see him defending all his hard-court points from 2024.
Sinner looks primed for another big season with further Grand Slam success a distinct possibility, but the sheer volume of points he has to defend does potentially work to the advantage of his greatest rival…
1) Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz was the year-end No 1 in 2022, and the Spaniard is our pick to end 2025 atop the ATP Rankings.
It won’t be an easy task for the 21-year-old, who has two Grand Slam titles to defend and almost 5,000 ranking points to make up on Sinner.
However, his rival faces pressure to defend a huge amount of points across the season, whereas the Spaniard has significant room to earn points.
Alcaraz has plenty of points to gain across the European clay swing, while he only has quarter-final points to defend at the Australian Open and Round 2 points at the US Open – expect him to surge.
