Aryna Sabalenka currently sits at No 1 in the WTA Rankings, but the top spot could change hands after the Australian Open with Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff ready to pounce.
Sabalenka has been top of the rankings since October last year when she replaced Swiatek on the back of her title runs at the US Open and the Wuhan Open.
However, that is not enough to guarantee that she stays at No 1 after the Australian Open due to the no small matter of being the defending champion at Melbourne Park.
Sabalenka is effectively starting the tournament with 7,656 points as she earned 2,000 points last year while Swiatek is ahead of her in the Live Rankings as she sits on 7,990 – dropping only 130 points following her third-round exit last year. Gauff reached the semi-final so has 6,108 points.
The world No 1 will need to reach at least the quarter-final (worth 430 points) to have any hope of remaining top after the Australian Open, but that task will become tougher if Swiatek reaches the third round again. Sabalenka will need to outperform her Polish rival as she will need to reach the semi-final if Swiatek makes it to round three.
A Swiatek run to the semi-final means Sabalenka will have to reach the final and if they both reach the final then it’s a winner takes all scenario for the world No 1 ranking.
She will start the tournament ahead in the rankings so at a minimum she has to equal Sabalenka’s results from the third round onwards and she will stay at No 1.
If Sabalenka and Gauff fail to make it to the business end of the tournament then Swiatek will be the No 1 after the tournament. As mentioned above, if she reaches the semi-final then Sabalenka has to reach the final while Gauff will be out of the running. A Swiatek-Sabalenka final will decide the No 1 ranking.
The case for Gauff
The American has a career-high of No 2 in the rankings and she can get to No 1 for the first time, but all the cards will need to fall into place for her.
Gauff’s permutations are simple as she can only get to No 1 by winning the title with Sabalenka failing to reach the semi-finals and Swiatek losing before the third round.
