The Battle of Ohio is set for Sunday, when the Cincinnati Bengals host the Cleveland Browns.
The Browns (3-11 SU, 4-10 ATS) have struggled all season and were eliminated from the playoffs weeks ago. The Bengals (6-8 SU, 8-6 ATS) could be eliminated soon, but with quarterback Joe Burrow and the offense operating at full throttle, they feel like they still have something to play for.
With Cleveland switching from Jameis Winston to Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback, Cincinnati has moved to an 8.5- or 9-point favorite. The over/under is 46.5 or 47 points.
Motivation is amplified this late in the season, and it’s one of the two biggest factors in handicapping this game.
Cincinnati’s playoff hopes got boosted Thursday night when the Chargers beat the Broncos. A lot still needs to happen for the Bengals to reach the postseason – including winning their last three games – but as long as there is hope, they will play hard.
On the other hand, there is no hope for the Browns. Their offense found some life for a few weeks with Winston behind center, but his turnover problems became too much. Now, Cleveland is turning to second-year quarterback Thompson-Robinson, and that’s bad news for the offense.
In the 2023 season, Thompson-Robinson ranked 48th in EPA (Expected Points Added) plus CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) out of 49 quarterbacks who played at least 135 plays. The only quarterback who was worse was Cleveland’s other backup, P.J. Walker.
This season, Deshaun Watson had an EPA + CPOE of 0.013 and ranked 33rd out of 35 quarterbacks who have run at least 240 plays. For reference, Thompson-Robinson’s EPA + CPOE last season was -0.03.
It’s bad even if you don’t dig that deep. The most playing time DTR got this season was when Watson got injured early in the first meeting against the Bengals. He was 11-for-24 for 82 yards and two interceptions.
In the four games in which he has at least 24 attempts, Thompson-Robinson’s best yards per attempt is 4.62. To put that into context, out of 36 quarterbacks this season who have thrown at least 200 passes, the lowest average is Watson’s 5.3.
